"I still hear some dogs barking. I'm for Senator Clinton,
but I think the great likelihood is that Obama will be the nominee. As soon as I determine when that is, I'll send him a check."
With a week until Oregon's primary, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds Sen. Barack Obama ahead of Sen. Hillary Clinton, 53% to 39%.
Key finding: "Our poll showed the war -- at 41% -- out polling the economy -- at 34% -- as
the biggest issue for Democrats in Oregon. The last state where we saw
the war poll remotely that high was in Wisconsin, and that was another
state with a small minority population that Barack Obama nonetheless
won big. It looks like we're headed for a repeat performance in Oregon."
Looking at history, the Wall Street Journal notes that "office seekers who hang on,
even long after the race seems futile, may be hoping to position
themselves for a later run or to reshape the party more to their
liking. They may be bargaining for the vice presidency, feel pressure
from supporters or believe there is an off-chance they will get lucky."
"But what is clear from 1976 and two more-recent races
is that the party took a drubbing when challengers refused to concede
and instead pursued the nomination into the convention."
With one week until the primary, a new SurveyUSA poll in Oregon finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. Hillary Clinton, 54% to 43%.
Key finding: "Though the results are only slightly more in favor of Obama than
SurveyUSA's most recent track point, released 11 days ago, before
results of North Carolina and Indiana were known, there is movement in
Oregon among women. 5 weeks ago, Clinton led by 7 among Oregon women.
Today, Obama leads by 7."
With the primary one week away, a new SurveyUSA poll in Kentucky finds Sen. Hillary Clinton way ahead of Sen. Barack Obama, 62% to 30%.
Clinton's lead is effectively unchanged from the last three polls over the past month.
Caveat: "It is unclear to
what extent Democrats in Kentucky will conclude, before Primary Day,
that the Kentucky contest has significance. Some may conclude that the
nomination fight is over, and that the contest has no meaning. Others
may see it as having great symbolic importance, and the opportunity to
make a statement."
Democrats and Republicans "may be more focused on Mississippi tonight than on the West Virginia presidential primary," CQ Politics reports. "After all, the primary's outcome is already predicted, while the outcome of the Mississippi's 1st Congressional District special election is much less certain."
If Travis W. Childers (D) beats Greg Davis (R), "he would be the third Democrat in recent weeks to take over a Republican-held seat" in a special election.
Interestingly, the New York Times notes Republicans "in this mostly white and very conservative district are trying to make the vote more a referendum on Senator Barack Obama than on the candidates themselves."
Voters head to the polls in West Virginia from 6:30 am to 7:30 pm ET. There are 28 delegates at stake.
CQ Politics: "An expected victory for New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in Tuesday's primary in West Virginia might have the anticlimactic feel of a badly defeated football team scoring a meaningless late game touchdown that the winning team didn't try very hard to contest."
Nonetheless, CNN notes that in the expectations game, Sen. Barack Obama set the bar high for his rival: "I think President Clinton said that they are going to get 80% of the vote. We'll take him at his word."
"Americans are gloomier about the direction of the country than at any
point since 1992, and Democrats have matched their biggest advantage in
25 years as the party better able to deal with the nation's main
problems," according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
"Overall, Democrats enjoy a 21-point advantage over Republicans as the party best-equipped to handle the nation's problems."
However, in a general election match up, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. John McCain, 51% to 44%, indicating McCain "continues to elude some of the anger aimed at his party and at President Bush."
President Bush got a record low 31% approval rating in the poll.
Quietly and "largely under the radar of most people," allies of of Rep. Ron Paul "have been organizing across the country to stage an embarrassing public revolt against Sen. John McCain when Republicans gather for their national convention in Minnesota at the beginning of September," according to the Los Angeles Times.
"They hope to demonstrate their disagreements with McCain vocally at the convention through platform fights and an attempt to get Paul a prominent speaking slot. Paul, who's running unopposed in his home Texas district for an 11th House term, still has some $5 million in war funds and has instructed his followers that their struggle is not about a single election, but a long-term revolution for control of the Republican Party."
"Public disgruntlement neared a record high and President Bush slipped to his career low in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll."
"Eighty-two percent of Americans now say the country's seriously off on the wrong track, up 10 points in the last year to a point from its record high in polls since 1973. And 31 percent approve of Bush's job performance overall, while 66 percent disapprove."
Key finding: "Bush now has gone 40 months without majority approval, beating Truman's record (also during economic discontent and an unpopular war) of 38 months from 1949-52."
The Wall Street Journal profiles Valerie Jarrett who is one of Sen. Barack Obama's "oldest advisers and closest campaign
aide -- an insider widely tipped for a top position in an Obama
administration."
"Unlike Burt Lance, who arrived from Georgia with President Carter and
became his budget director, or Karen Hughes, who was President Bush's
communications manager, Ms. Jarrett isn't a confidante with a
particular portfolio. What she does share with these counterparts is a
fierce sense of loyalty and a refusal to publicly say anything that may
reflect poorly on the candidate -- or steal his thunder."
Meanwhile, the Washingtonian skips ahead of the November election and speculates on who might be in Obama's Cabinet.
Washington Whispers says that Mitt Romney, "who loaned his campaign $35 million, isn't even trying to recoup his loss. The reason: He's focused on raising money for Sen. John McCain and other Republicans."
"It helps, of course, that Romney entered the race after amassing a fortune of at least $200 million. And even if he had planned to eventually recoup the money after Election Day, he can thank McCain for messing that up: There is a provision in the McCain-Feingold campaign reform act that says fundraisers to pay off debts must end on Election Day, effectively the convention."
According to the Washington Post, Sen. Hillary Clinton aides "continued to insist that she will remain in the race even while confirming that she is $20 million in debt."
The New York Daily News reports "the situation is serious enough that Clinton has summoned her top fund-raisers to a meeting at her Washington home on Wednesday to talk about the road ahead."
The Los Angeles Times notes that the worst thing that could happen to Sen. Barack Obama "now is what so many party members are clamoring for:
Hillary Rodham Clinton to drop out."
"Why? Because with
her name still on the ballots, she'd be very likely to win in West
Virginia anyway. And maybe Kentucky too, given the demographics in both
places. And possibly Puerto Rico as well."
"How would that look
if at the end of the Democratic race the winning candidate with clearly
the most delegates and popular votes went down to defeat against a
candidate who isn't in the contest anymore? Ouch! That would tend to
overshadow his expected wins in Oregon and Montana."
Meanwhile, Ben Smith looks at six ways Clinton can leave the race.
Sen. Ted Kennedy doesn't think it's possible, but The Week surveys other opinions on the likelihood of a joint Obama-Clinton ticket to take on Sen. John McCain in the general election.
Editor's Note: Readers can now sign up a free trial subscription to The Week. For other offers, please check our catalog.
Hendrick Hertzberg notes that "it is not too soon to ask" when and where Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign went wrong.
"Well,
here's one answer: eight years ago, in New York. If she had chosen,
instead, to move to Illinois, where her accent is familiar and her
connections deep (Chicago's her home town, after all), she could have
settled in and sought her Senate seat there, in 2004. She didn't do
that, presumably for reasons both marital (Bill's not really a Second
City kind of guy) and political (she would have had to run for
President as a first-term senator rather than as a reëlected one). But
Barack Obama would still be a local or regional up-and-comer and, most
likely, a Hillary supporter. Here's another: five and a half years ago,
in Washington. If she had opposed authorizing the Iraq war, the
activists -- grassroots and netroots -- might have mobilized for her rather
than against her. She might have cruised to the nomination, and the
Democratic Party might now be basking in the warm glow of being about
to make history by electing the first woman President."
Just a day before the West Virginia primary, a new Suffolk University poll finds Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama among Democratic voters by a wide margin, 60% to 24%.
Said pollster David Paleologos: "Barack Obama may have to write off West Virginia come November. In 2000, Al Gore won seventy-two percent of West Virginia
Democratic Primary voters and lost the state's general election to George
Bush by six percent; in 2004, John Kerry won sixty-nine percent of West
Virginia Democratic Primary voters and lost the state's general election to
George Bush by thirteen percent. If Barack Obama can't even garner thirty
percent of West Virginia Democratic Primary voters, what does that say
about the West Virginia general election?"
Robert Novak: "Support is growing in Democratic ranks for Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland as
vice president. He would bring to the ticket maturity (he's 66),
experience (six terms in Congress) and moderation (rated ''A'' by the
National Rifle Association). He is very popular in Ohio, a state
Republicans must carry to elect a president."
Another important factor: As a supporter of Sen. Hillary Clinton, Strickland could help unite the Democratic party.
"You're going to see people (superdelegates) making decisions at a
rapid pace from this point on. We've been announcing several
each day for the last few days. We're going to continue to unfurl these
endorsements on a regular basis."
-- Strategist David Axelrod, quoted by the Washington Post, as Sen. Barack Obama has now surpassed Sen. Hillary Clinton in superdelegate support.
From the book jacket: "After John F. Kennedy's assassination, Robert Kennedy--formerly Jack's no-holds-barred political warrior--almost lost hope. He was haunted by his brother's murder, and by the nation's seeming inabilities to solve its problems of race, poverty, and the war in Vietnam. Bobby sensed the country's pain, and when he announced that he was running for president, the country united behind his hopes. Over the action-packed eighty-two days of his campaign, Americans were inspired by Kennedy's promise to lead them toward a better time. And after an assassin's bullet stopped this last great stirring public figure of the 1960s, crowds lined up along the country's railroad tracks to say goodbye to Bobby."
The New York Times has a must-read preview of the fall campaign.
Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama "are already drawing up strategies for taking each other on in the general election, focusing on the same groups -- including independent voters and Latinos -- and about a dozen states where they think the contest is likely to be decided this fall."
In short, McCain will try to paint Obama as inexperienced, liberal and out-of-touch with the mainstream. Obama will try to link McCain as the prime heir to President Bush and highlight his opposition to abortion rights.
Interesting: "The two sides said Saturday that they would be open to holding joint
forums or unmoderated debates across the country in front of voters
through the summer."
Here's another interesting book out later this month: The Last Campaign: Robert F. Kennedy and 82 Days That Inspired America by Thurston Clarke.
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