The Race To Define Kerry

Worth Clicking: Blasts from the past wound Romney

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May 28, 2004

The Race To Define Kerry

Recent head-to-head polls in the presidential race show many voters still don't have a strong opinion of Sen. John Kerry. It's only natural at this early stage that people have firmer ideas about the incumbent than the challenger, but it's striking nonetheless.

Percent still undedecided on Bush, Kerry:

Zogby: 1%, 21%
Quinnipiac: 2%, 16%
Newsweek: 8%, 14%
Annenberg: 12%, 21%
CBS News: 16%, 35%

This simple fact has set the strategies for the campaign. To attract on-the-fence voters, Kerry is expanding the use of biographical ads to introduce himself, while President Bush is running negative ads to try to define his opponent first.

In many ways, the presidential race mirrors the 1980 campaign when incumbent Jimmy Carter faced declining approval rates yet the public was unsure of Ronald Reagan, a candidate viewed by many on the ideological fringes of his own party. Reagan's challenge then -- to make himself more appealing to the average voter -- is the same as Kerry's today.

The Wall Street Journal's John Harwood notes "the lopsided 1980 election depended on more than just voters rejecting Mr. Carter. Deep into October 1980, Mr. Carter held a narrow lead in the polls by depicting Ronald Reagan as a mean-spirited, right-wing Hollywood actor.

"The dam broke once debates in the fall persuaded swing voters that Mr. Reagan was an acceptable alternative."

Update: Dan Conley expands on the the similarities to 1980 and Dave Pell asks, "How could anyone be undecided about anything or anyone at this point?"

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Taegan D. Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country, including the Washington Post, USA Today, Boston Globe, San Francisco Chronicle, Chicago Tribune, Philadelphia Inquirer and Christian Science Monitor.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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May 28, 2004