The new midterm election forecast from Larry Sabato shows an electoral tidal wave forming as "conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer."
"Given what we can see at this moment, Republicans have a good chance to win the House by picking up as many as 47 seats, net... This estimate, which may be raised or lowered by Election Day, is based on a careful district-by-district analysis, plus electoral modeling based on trends in President Obama's Gallup job approval rating and the Democratic-versus-Republican congressional generic ballot... If anything, we have been conservative in estimating the probable GOP House gains, if the election were being held today."
"In the Senate, we now believe the GOP will do a bit better than our long-time prediction of +7 seats. Republicans have an outside shot at winning full control (+10), but are more likely to end up with +8 (or maybe +9, at which point it will be interesting to see how senators such as Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut, Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and others react). GOP leaders themselves did not believe such a result was truly possible just a few months ago. If the Republican wave on November 2 is as large as some polls are suggesting it may be, then the surprise on election night could be a full GOP takeover."
"The statehouses will provide the third leg of the Republicans' 2010 victory. We have long suggested the GOP would gain a net +6 governorships. We now believe they will win +8. This boon to the GOP for redistricting will be enhanced by a gain of perhaps 300 to 500 seats in the state legislatures, and the addition of Republican control in 8 to 12 legislative chambers around the country."
In summary: Republicans are projected to pick up 47 seats in the House, 8-9 seats in the Senate and 8 governorships.
